The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday released its October 2026 World Economic Outlook, "Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices," raising India's growth forecast to 7.0% for FY27 — an upgrade of 60 basis points from its July projection.
The report, released during the IMF's annual meeting in Bangkok, retained India's growth at 7% for 2027. On a calendar-year basis, the Fund projects Indian growth at 7.4% in 2026 and 7% in 2027.
India "stands out" with upward revisions
The IMF said "India stands out with upward revisions," keeping the country among the fastest-growing major economies — supported by resilient domestic demand and robust services activity, despite higher oil prices.
Global and regional picture
Global output is projected to expand 3.1% in 2026 — up from the 3.0% forecast in July but down from 3.5% in 2025 — before recovering to 3.4% in 2027. Emerging market and developing economies are expected to slow from 4.5% in 2025 to 3.7% in 2026 and then recover to 4.4% in 2027. China's growth was marked down slightly to 4.5% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027, while the ASEAN-5 group was revised up to 4.4% in 2026 from 4.1%, helped by data-centre and AI investments.
Inflation outlook and energy warning
The Fund projects India's CPI inflation to average 5.0% in FY27 and moderate to 4.4% in FY28, with its baseline scenario assuming the Strait of Hormuz reopens in March 2027. The IMF cautioned that the upgrade does not mean India is insulated from the energy shock — effects will vary with each economy's exposure to the conflict and whether it is an energy importer or exporter.
Sources:
Business Today — IMF raises India's growth forecast to 7% for 2026, upgrades outlook by 60 BPS (Oct 13, 2026)
Nikkei Asia — India, ASEAN growth revised up in IMF's latest world outlook (Oct 13, 2026)
The report, released during the IMF's annual meeting in Bangkok, retained India's growth at 7% for 2027. On a calendar-year basis, the Fund projects Indian growth at 7.4% in 2026 and 7% in 2027.
India "stands out" with upward revisions
The IMF said "India stands out with upward revisions," keeping the country among the fastest-growing major economies — supported by resilient domestic demand and robust services activity, despite higher oil prices.
Global and regional picture
Global output is projected to expand 3.1% in 2026 — up from the 3.0% forecast in July but down from 3.5% in 2025 — before recovering to 3.4% in 2027. Emerging market and developing economies are expected to slow from 4.5% in 2025 to 3.7% in 2026 and then recover to 4.4% in 2027. China's growth was marked down slightly to 4.5% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027, while the ASEAN-5 group was revised up to 4.4% in 2026 from 4.1%, helped by data-centre and AI investments.
Inflation outlook and energy warning
The Fund projects India's CPI inflation to average 5.0% in FY27 and moderate to 4.4% in FY28, with its baseline scenario assuming the Strait of Hormuz reopens in March 2027. The IMF cautioned that the upgrade does not mean India is insulated from the energy shock — effects will vary with each economy's exposure to the conflict and whether it is an energy importer or exporter.
Sources:
Business Today — IMF raises India's growth forecast to 7% for 2026, upgrades outlook by 60 BPS (Oct 13, 2026)
Nikkei Asia — India, ASEAN growth revised up in IMF's latest world outlook (Oct 13, 2026)
