Prediction market Kalshi is investigating a series of well-timed bets that correctly called President Donald Trump's selection of conservative commentator Katie Zacharia as White House press secretary, The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday. The probe renews scrutiny of whether traders are profiting from non-public information on prediction markets.
A Kalshi spokeswoman confirmed the investigation to the Journal and declined to comment further. Trades on Kalshi are anonymous to the public, but the company keeps records of its traders' identities.
Small bets, outsized payouts
The New York Times and other outlets began reporting Zacharia's selection around 2 p.m. ET on Friday. A Journal analysis of publicly available Kalshi data found at least three wagers placed before the news broke. A $19 bet placed around 10:43 p.m. ET on Thursday is slated to pay out $1,896 once the market closes. Two more bets, of about $74 and $80, placed around 1:41 p.m. on Friday, are expected to pay out $3,689 and $4,023.
In the days before the reports, Kalshi traders gave Zacharia roughly a 1 per cent chance of being named to the post. Trump later confirmed the appointment in a Truth Social post on Friday afternoon, naming Zacharia to succeed Karoline Leavitt.
Growing insider-trading concern
The proliferation of prediction markets has created new temptations for knowledgeable insiders to cash in on proprietary information, the Journal noted. In July, Trump's teleprompter operator came under investigation by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission over potential insider trading after nabbing profits from bets on the president's speeches. No finding of wrongdoing has been announced in either case.
Sources:
Kalshi Examines Bets on Trump's Pick for New White House Press Secretary - The Wall Street Journal
Kalshi probes suspicious trades tied to Trump press secretary pick, WSJ reports - Channel NewsAsia (Reuters)
A Kalshi spokeswoman confirmed the investigation to the Journal and declined to comment further. Trades on Kalshi are anonymous to the public, but the company keeps records of its traders' identities.
Small bets, outsized payouts
The New York Times and other outlets began reporting Zacharia's selection around 2 p.m. ET on Friday. A Journal analysis of publicly available Kalshi data found at least three wagers placed before the news broke. A $19 bet placed around 10:43 p.m. ET on Thursday is slated to pay out $1,896 once the market closes. Two more bets, of about $74 and $80, placed around 1:41 p.m. on Friday, are expected to pay out $3,689 and $4,023.
In the days before the reports, Kalshi traders gave Zacharia roughly a 1 per cent chance of being named to the post. Trump later confirmed the appointment in a Truth Social post on Friday afternoon, naming Zacharia to succeed Karoline Leavitt.
Growing insider-trading concern
The proliferation of prediction markets has created new temptations for knowledgeable insiders to cash in on proprietary information, the Journal noted. In July, Trump's teleprompter operator came under investigation by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission over potential insider trading after nabbing profits from bets on the president's speeches. No finding of wrongdoing has been announced in either case.
Sources:
Kalshi Examines Bets on Trump's Pick for New White House Press Secretary - The Wall Street Journal
Kalshi probes suspicious trades tied to Trump press secretary pick, WSJ reports - Channel NewsAsia (Reuters)
