Malicious use of artificial intelligence, including bioweapons, and nuclear conflict followed by nuclear famine carry risks of extinction within the next 75 years, a new global risk assessment published in The Lancet has warned — though the experts behind it stress that the likelihood of such scenarios remains low.
17 threats, one interconnected list
The Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health, a panel of 35 leaders spanning health, economics, security, governance and technology, identified 17 major threats to human health over the coming 75 years. AI misuse and nuclear conflict top the list for existential risk; the other 15 include air pollution, antimicrobial resistance, childhood malnutrition, the climate crisis, conventional conflict, cuts to international aid, excessive alcohol use, high blood pressure, income inequality, inadequate education, naturally occurring pandemics, obesity, poor mental health, smoking and unhealthy ageing.
The commission modelled how many years of healthy life could be lost to disease, disability or premature death under current trends, using the measure known as disability-adjusted life years.
Why the warning matters now
The report says a large-scale nuclear conflict could send enormous quantities of particles into the upper atmosphere, blocking sunlight and triggering a famine that could put billions at risk. On the technology side, it warns that AI could be misused to facilitate the development of biological weapons. An accompanying Lancet editorial warned of an "apocalypse" if such scenarios materialise.
But the commission's message is not fatalistic: for every threat, it says, there is a "realistic course of action." Limiting global warming to about 1.8 degrees Celsius rather than letting it reach 4.4 degrees, for example, could prevent 1.89 billion years of healthy life being lost by 2100.
The findings are scheduled to be presented at the World Health Summit in Berlin, and the commission plans to update the assessment annually.
Sources:
- AI, Nuclear Conflict and Bioweapons Could Threaten Humanity's Survival by 2100 — World News 24x7
- AI and nuclear war threaten human extinction by 2100, report warns — Capital FM
17 threats, one interconnected list
The Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health, a panel of 35 leaders spanning health, economics, security, governance and technology, identified 17 major threats to human health over the coming 75 years. AI misuse and nuclear conflict top the list for existential risk; the other 15 include air pollution, antimicrobial resistance, childhood malnutrition, the climate crisis, conventional conflict, cuts to international aid, excessive alcohol use, high blood pressure, income inequality, inadequate education, naturally occurring pandemics, obesity, poor mental health, smoking and unhealthy ageing.
The commission modelled how many years of healthy life could be lost to disease, disability or premature death under current trends, using the measure known as disability-adjusted life years.
Why the warning matters now
The report says a large-scale nuclear conflict could send enormous quantities of particles into the upper atmosphere, blocking sunlight and triggering a famine that could put billions at risk. On the technology side, it warns that AI could be misused to facilitate the development of biological weapons. An accompanying Lancet editorial warned of an "apocalypse" if such scenarios materialise.
But the commission's message is not fatalistic: for every threat, it says, there is a "realistic course of action." Limiting global warming to about 1.8 degrees Celsius rather than letting it reach 4.4 degrees, for example, could prevent 1.89 billion years of healthy life being lost by 2100.
The findings are scheduled to be presented at the World Health Summit in Berlin, and the commission plans to update the assessment annually.
Sources:
- AI, Nuclear Conflict and Bioweapons Could Threaten Humanity's Survival by 2100 — World News 24x7
- AI and nuclear war threaten human extinction by 2100, report warns — Capital FM
