NATO's top military commander is drafting a strategy for defeating a possible Russian attack on the alliance's eastern flank, with low-cost drones and artificial intelligence placed at the centre of the plan alongside traditional weapons.
The unclassified document, described as a "theory of victory", was seen by Bloomberg in unclassified form and is due to be presented by Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General Alexus Grynkewich, in Poland on October 12, amid heightened tensions between NATO and Russia.
Drones, AI and traditional firepower
The document is meant to clarify how the alliance would handle a possible incursion into NATO territory, according to senior officials and diplomats familiar with the matter. If attacked, NATO would seek to block the incursion with a combination of land forces and other assets under the NATO Eastern Flank Deterrence Initiative, a concept relying on low-cost drones, minimally crewed systems and AI-enabled targeting.
After gaining freedom of manoeuvre, the alliance would seek to destroy the adversary's command and control with the goal of defeating attacking forces quickly and overwhelmingly. The strategy also stresses countering hybrid threats, aggressive actions below the threshold of open conflict, as part of deterrence.
Defensive framing
The strategy insists on NATO's defensive nature and on avoiding involuntary provocations. Grynkewich's spokesman, Colonel Martin O'Donnell, declined to discuss details but said the alliance was purely defensive. He said the theory of victory was simple: maintain NATO's advantage, and that given the unsettled security environment the alliance must set the conditions now to deter aggression and, if necessary, win if attacked.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said recently that there were no indications Russia was preparing a conventional attack on the alliance, though Europe should be prepared for enduring hybrid attacks. On October 5, Germany's foreign intelligence chief warned lawmakers that Russian President Vladimir Putin had passed the point where he could end attacks on Ukraine without jeopardising his power base at home, increasing risk around the continent.
Defence spending push
The document is also meant to show allies how NATO would integrate conventional weapons with the new capabilities that have emerged since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and to urge more defence investment and better preparations. NATO allies, especially in Europe, have massively ramped up defence spending, with debate emerging over how to prioritise between traditional weapons such as tanks and newer technology proven in the Ukraine conflict. The United States sent NATO allies a questionnaire this summer gauging defence spending and support for President Donald Trump's policies to inform decisions on planned cuts of US military assets committed to defending Europe.
Sources: NATO drafts plan to defeat Russian attack with drones and AI (The Straits Times, via Bloomberg)
The unclassified document, described as a "theory of victory", was seen by Bloomberg in unclassified form and is due to be presented by Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General Alexus Grynkewich, in Poland on October 12, amid heightened tensions between NATO and Russia.
Drones, AI and traditional firepower
The document is meant to clarify how the alliance would handle a possible incursion into NATO territory, according to senior officials and diplomats familiar with the matter. If attacked, NATO would seek to block the incursion with a combination of land forces and other assets under the NATO Eastern Flank Deterrence Initiative, a concept relying on low-cost drones, minimally crewed systems and AI-enabled targeting.
After gaining freedom of manoeuvre, the alliance would seek to destroy the adversary's command and control with the goal of defeating attacking forces quickly and overwhelmingly. The strategy also stresses countering hybrid threats, aggressive actions below the threshold of open conflict, as part of deterrence.
Defensive framing
The strategy insists on NATO's defensive nature and on avoiding involuntary provocations. Grynkewich's spokesman, Colonel Martin O'Donnell, declined to discuss details but said the alliance was purely defensive. He said the theory of victory was simple: maintain NATO's advantage, and that given the unsettled security environment the alliance must set the conditions now to deter aggression and, if necessary, win if attacked.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said recently that there were no indications Russia was preparing a conventional attack on the alliance, though Europe should be prepared for enduring hybrid attacks. On October 5, Germany's foreign intelligence chief warned lawmakers that Russian President Vladimir Putin had passed the point where he could end attacks on Ukraine without jeopardising his power base at home, increasing risk around the continent.
Defence spending push
The document is also meant to show allies how NATO would integrate conventional weapons with the new capabilities that have emerged since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and to urge more defence investment and better preparations. NATO allies, especially in Europe, have massively ramped up defence spending, with debate emerging over how to prioritise between traditional weapons such as tanks and newer technology proven in the Ukraine conflict. The United States sent NATO allies a questionnaire this summer gauging defence spending and support for President Donald Trump's policies to inform decisions on planned cuts of US military assets committed to defending Europe.
Sources: NATO drafts plan to defeat Russian attack with drones and AI (The Straits Times, via Bloomberg)
