The World Meteorological Organization has warned that the current El Niño event could become one of the strongest since at least 1950, with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific expected to shatter records in the coming months. The UN weather body said there is a near-100 per cent chance the phenomenon will persist through February 2027.
The warning came in the WMO's monthly climate bulletin, released on Thursday, which said El Niño will continue to intensify before peaking in December. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the forecasts indicate a near-100 per cent likelihood that it will persist through February 2027, potentially making it one of the strongest events since at least 1950.
Record ocean heat
The WMO said sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, the region at the heart of the El Niño phenomenon, are expected to reach a record 3.7 degrees Celsius above normal from October to December. That is far above the previous record anomaly of 2.6 degrees, set between November 2015 and January 2016.
"The ocean it's drawing from is the warmest we've ever measured it. There is simply more heat available to release," Saulo said in a statement accompanying the bulletin.
El Niño is the warm phase of the naturally occurring El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle. It tends to raise global temperatures and disrupt rainfall patterns across large regions, bringing drought to some areas and heavy rains to others, and typically occurs every two to seven years.
Global and India impact
The bulletin adds to a grim climate picture. Mean global temperatures in August reached 16.96 degrees Celsius, tying with July 2023 as the hottest month on record, according to the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service. Researchers at the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab predicted last month that this year's "super-El Niño" could result in as many as 451,000 excess deaths across the globe between June 2026 and February 2027.
For India, the implications are serious. El Niño is known to suppress monsoon rainfall, and the country received just 87.4 per cent of the long-period average rainfall this southwest monsoon season, at 759.4 mm against a normal of 868.6 mm. Forecasters expect drier-than-average conditions over the Indian subcontinent, with a high probability of drought and extreme heat that could hit farmers, fishers and shepherds hard.
Sources:
UN weather body says El Niño set to intensify and last until February 2027 - Reuters
Unfolding El Niño may be the strongest since 1950s, says WMO - The HinduBusinessLine
El Niño to continue to intensify ahead of its forecast peak in Dec: WMO - Business Standard
The warning came in the WMO's monthly climate bulletin, released on Thursday, which said El Niño will continue to intensify before peaking in December. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the forecasts indicate a near-100 per cent likelihood that it will persist through February 2027, potentially making it one of the strongest events since at least 1950.
Record ocean heat
The WMO said sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, the region at the heart of the El Niño phenomenon, are expected to reach a record 3.7 degrees Celsius above normal from October to December. That is far above the previous record anomaly of 2.6 degrees, set between November 2015 and January 2016.
"The ocean it's drawing from is the warmest we've ever measured it. There is simply more heat available to release," Saulo said in a statement accompanying the bulletin.
El Niño is the warm phase of the naturally occurring El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle. It tends to raise global temperatures and disrupt rainfall patterns across large regions, bringing drought to some areas and heavy rains to others, and typically occurs every two to seven years.
Global and India impact
The bulletin adds to a grim climate picture. Mean global temperatures in August reached 16.96 degrees Celsius, tying with July 2023 as the hottest month on record, according to the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service. Researchers at the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab predicted last month that this year's "super-El Niño" could result in as many as 451,000 excess deaths across the globe between June 2026 and February 2027.
For India, the implications are serious. El Niño is known to suppress monsoon rainfall, and the country received just 87.4 per cent of the long-period average rainfall this southwest monsoon season, at 759.4 mm against a normal of 868.6 mm. Forecasters expect drier-than-average conditions over the Indian subcontinent, with a high probability of drought and extreme heat that could hit farmers, fishers and shepherds hard.
Sources:
UN weather body says El Niño set to intensify and last until February 2027 - Reuters
Unfolding El Niño may be the strongest since 1950s, says WMO - The HinduBusinessLine
El Niño to continue to intensify ahead of its forecast peak in Dec: WMO - Business Standard
